A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
