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It was eight weeks ago when the young forward stood on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while his coach scolded him for missing a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his performances were a sign or the reason of Villa's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. As the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The team continued to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their initial half-dozen matches, now sit a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Is This Team Serious Challengers?

It remains a rather hard question to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding this season, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.

According to the data, on just two occasions has the team registered an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a side that have put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear strangely fragile – yet right now the fine lines are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with rivals and wait for their star man to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more against Manchester United.

The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Logic says not. Against United, the opponents had more efforts and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.

A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge Villa must confront in the near future. The forward, surely, will not continue to blasting the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Could it be an alternative path in which, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still return to peak condition.

• Ollie Watkins may begin to finding the net regularly.
• The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he was in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.

Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as an essential England player.

This remarkable period must be cherished exactly since it seems so surreal. When the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.